MyDD :: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6

WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6

by Todd Beeton, Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 06:42:22 PM EST

The just released poll has Obama up 6, identical to June's numbers.

Obama 47
McCain 41

The spin of Gregory's Road To The White House, which just broke the poll, is "no Middle East trip bump for Obama", since the poll was taken from Friday to Monday. More spin: why isn't Barack Obama further ahead? Hacks.

More enthusiasm gap from the poll:

Supporters' Views: Excited to Vote for Candidate

Obama 44
McCain 14

Ouch.

Update [2008-7-23 19:9:51 by Todd Beeton]:More from Hardball:

Top priority for federal government?
Jobs/Economy 23% (27%)
Energy/Gas 20% (18%)
Iraq War 16% (24%)

Chuck Todd bringing a dose of reality:

It's going to take a week or two to see if he gets a bounce out of [his Middle East trip.] We're not going to see it in an instant poll.

Update [2008-7-23 19:31:49 by Todd Beeton]:Link poll results is HERE. Jonathan called to alert me to this interesting result, which actually reflects more accurately what people's choices will be on the ballot in November:

Obama 48
McCain 35
Nader 5
Barr 2

Sshhh, don't tell David Gregory, his head might explode.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, barack obama, john mccain (all tags)

Permalink :: 50 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

The daily tracking polls are not showing any bounce , so I am not really surprised .

These are the dog days of summer , not many folks are paying attention.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 06:46:34 PM EST

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

14%....ouch...yay.

by danIA on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 06:47:21 PM EST

STP-STP (2.00 / 1)

Screw the Polls Screw the Pundits.

Hopefully Obama and Axelrod understand, like the primaries, general elections are won on the ground.

Registration and GOTV are methods and executions, and are NOT at the whim of polls, pundits, gotchas and gaffes.

They also are boring, and the media tends to ignore them. Good. let it run under the radar.

Well, Axelrod better be spending that money I am sending them every month to get those boots on the ground!

Till then, let WSJ/MSNBC/NEWSWEEK/RASMUSSEN stare at each others navels, I'm sticking with method and smart guys who know how this works.

"Well the danger on the rocks is surely past... Still I remain tied to the mast"...Don Fagen, Poet and Piano Player

by WashStateBlue on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 06:52:28 PM EST

Re: STP-STP (2.00 / 1)

Yep - That's what they're doing. Huge field operation is developing, with a major emphasis on voter registration.

But for that time period, it's far too early to determine the impact of the trip. You probably have to wait for a week until it's done to account for people who get their news from reading Time or talking to friends at a barbecue.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:00:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Interesting VP numbers (none / 0)

60% think McCain should choose an "economics" VP while the public is split as between an "economics" and "foreign policy" VP for Obama. Romney seems to be obvious for McCain but who provides the best balance for Obama? Clinton and Gore are the only two that come to mind.

Obama's lead on the economy is 55-52, which is surprising. His focus the last two weeks has been on foreign policy, so he should probably go back to discussing the party's bread and butter quickly when he gets back.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 06:54:06 PM EST

Re: Interesting VP numbers (none / 0)

didn't see that number on economics,

did it tighten from the last poll?

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 06:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Up by 13% with Nader and Barr in the mix (2.00 / 2)

But Obama's lead over McCain expands to 13 points when third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added into the mix -- with Obama at 48 percent, McCain at 35 percent, Nader at 5 percent and Barr at 2 percent.

by verbatim on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 06:56:34 PM EST

Re: Up by 13% with Nader and Barr in the mix (none / 0)

Good point but isn't the conventional wisdom that these third-party figures tank approaching election day?

by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:20:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah (none / 0)

No way Nader gets 5%. He'll be lucky to get the 1% he got in 2004.

by conspiracy on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:26:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah (none / 0)

Don't count in it. There are many people disenchanted with the Republican brand who are not going to vote for a Democrat. I wouldn't be surprised to see both him and Barr break 3%.

I read the body count out of the paper; now it's written all over my face.

by JDF on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:54:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (2.00 / 1)

He's not further ahead because we have a fucked up electoral college system, and because 40% or so are not going to vote for Barack even if he actually had a real halo and walked on water. But he doesn't need everyone. Just enough to win.

by NY Writer on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 06:59:11 PM EST

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

The "Obama's lead should be larger" drumbeat is really starting to tick me off.

Remember the summer of '88? Dukakis' 15+ advantage in the summer melted by the GOP convention. Huge leads in modern national races are, quite simply, artificial.

The point is that Obama's lead, whether 3, 5, or 7 points is SOLID and has been so since May. I draw much more comfort in this kind of polling advantage than I ever would in a 12 point gap.

The media will do anything to make this race look like a dead heat. And for the record, I don't recall a lot of pundits asking why Bush never established a commanding lead over Kerry, even with the inherent advantages of wartime incumbency.

by enr37 on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:03:23 PM EST

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

enr37:
There's a lot in what you say about the timing and the volatility of polling. But. The reason for the unease is simply the surrounding landscape which shows the dems generic, desire for change, right way/wrong way etc so massively against McCain. What the poll tonight showed and a lot of commentators have said is that this is an election about Obama. A lot of conservative are boosting their morale by claiming that's why he's going to lose although based on what I've seen this week by every measure he's miles ahead of McCain. So if it's an election all about Obama there's bound to be unease, he's carrying an incredible weight on his shoulders but he seems equal to it I have to say. When the Repubs are critcising his suits, style, basketball skills, german language flyers, you realize they have nowhere to go. Obama needs to start making this election partly about McCain.

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:13:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Well said.

by rfahey22 on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:33:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

I don't see any alternative to this election being a 'referendum' on Obama, but that cuts both ways and as you say he seems equal to the task. They can hardly spend all their time criticising him on policy and character and then complain he is getting all the media attention, but they will try.

by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:34:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Of course there's an alternative. He can make the election about McCain. If it's all about Obama it makes him incredibly vulnerable to the slightest hiccup. He need Clinton to consolidate his position with democrats and go after McCain on all his weak spots. And she's better at it than Obama. He's too cerebral. Nothing wrong with that but it handicaps him in squelching McCain.

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:38:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

I just don't see him going after McCain's character, and no sign of any inclination to do so, quite the contrary. It would come down to an attack on an old veteran on character, sooner or later, with the media rallying to McCain's defence. I think it would be an error of judgement.

Now attacking surgically on McCain's supposed foreign policy strengths, that makes sense. But I think that is already well under way, quietly.

by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:47:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

I detect some disappointment amongst Obama's most extreme fans. Gregory's bump line is largely bs since news items about him in the middle east didn't really start happening until Monday so it's going to take a little time for this to percolate. However, it does highlight what a lot of the more sensible Clintonistas have been saying. He's need the supercharge that would come from putting her on the ticket. There is simply no one else who could do it. He's performed superbly this week to the extent that I'm on the edge of becoming an Obamanaut but it's no use being blind to facts. McCain given this week should be completely in the tank. Why isn't he?

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:05:21 PM EST

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Regain McCain's numbers, two things:

First, his gaffes, screw-ups and so on have not been reported very heavily in the more mainstream media, as far as I can tell. Indeed, CBS made the affirmative decision not to publicize one of his huge mistakes.

Second, McCain's campaign along with some third-party groups have gone intensely negative against Obama, especially over the past week or so. It's never clear how effective this stuff is, but it can't be dismissed as completely ineffective.

by DPW on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:11:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

"Regain" should have been "regarding." I'm not sure how that came out as "regain."

by DPW on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:13:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Well it's up to democratic auxiliaries to start running ads dumping on McCain. They have lots of money and McCain has given them lots of targets.

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:16:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (2.00 / 1)

Two reasons McCain's not in the tank.

1) A decent chunk of Americans are Republicans and most of them will still vote that way.

2) Tall, skinny, black, big-eared Harvard graduate with the funny name vs. War Hero Superpatriot white dude who married into a beer family.

Obama has been ahead in every single national poll I have seen. He's up between six and nine points, depending on whom you ask. That is a significant (and entirely sufficient) lead.

This isn't directed at you personally (please remember that), but there are too many people who seem to insist that no lead in single digits is enough, whilst forgetting that, for example, a six point margin of victory in the popular vote would give Obama around 320 EV's.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:15:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Reaper:
There's some truth in this. There is considerable residual respect for McCain but on party ID the dems have about a 14% advantage and on all the issues they have massive leads. Hence, as tonights poll shows it's unease about Obama that's behind this. But he knows this which is why all the pictures of him looking incredibly presidential are such an obvious and key part of his strategy. And why the Repugs are so pissed. he needs to watch some of these interviews though because one of them I saw made him look a bit slippery.

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:23:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It has to be said (none / 0)

I don't know what the unease about Obama is, but I saw it in my family and I talked to them, opened up to them about it, and what I found out is that the unease about Obama that existed among my family of Democrats is that he's a black guy from Chicago. They're not even paying attention to how he looks in Europe or his speeches or policy positions. For them, he's Farrakhan.

There's nothing you can do about those people. Hopefully there aren't many, but they exist.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 07:18:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

I see the middle east trip as something that will slowly pay dividends over the course of the election, not something that will provide a bump. Obama's numbers really weren't being significantly dragged down due to lack of foreign policy credentials. Instead, it permanently weakens McCain's position on Iraq while bolstering Obama's, and taking a GOP attack line off the table.

by Homebrewer on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:25:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

I'm on the edge of becoming an Obamanaut. Welcome aboard, the Kool-aid is actually very nice, soft aromas of fresh lemon with a hint of hay and lemon grass. A palate of zesty exotic fruit, with hints of arugula and a refreshingly dry post-modern finish offering a sorbet style cleanse between election cycles. Ready to enjoy now. Store in a cool dry place.

by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:27:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

He's doing a great job that's why, which is what I expect from any democratic candidate. I still think he needs her though. Some of these other names that have been thrown around are eyerollers. Sam Nunn, Tim Kaine, Joe Biden, all no doubt worthy but no one is going to the barricades for these guys.

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:32:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Well it's really great to have your genuinely enthusiastic support. As to the VP pick, I am sure it will come as at least a mild surprise. I am holding out for Clark or Biden at this point, Reed a possible stand-in. I'm not sure how the Clinton choice fits into the equation but at this point that would be a surprise too, wouldn't it? The Democratic ticket has everyone head-faked now, which is part of the fun I suppose.

by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:40:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

You'd go to the barricades for Biden. Good luck. He's a great guy, knows what he's talking about but he ain't going to galvanize dems. And don't tell me she'll galvanize Republicans. As if any were going to vote Obama anyway.

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:43:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Intrade has Clinton, Biden, Bayh, Kaine and Sebelius all running about the same with McCaskill, Clark, Reed, Nunn together in the second tier. Edwards, interestingly, gaining but hovering somewhere in between. It's a crap shoot.

by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:55:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

And Biden has been pulverising the Republicans lately on foreign policy, if you ask me, and I still think that is the weakest point of their line. He may not be inspirational but he is lethal on international politics, and a straight shooter.

by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:57:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

but he is lethal on international politics, and a straight shooter.

Agreed but I still say he wouldn't wow the party and help him win MI, VA and OH and have a shot at FL and maybe even AK. She would. She is also lethal. She'd take McCain and Pawlenty to pieces.

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 08:03:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

You'll have to forgive me, it must be the yummy Kool-aid, but I am already thinking ahead to the first term of an Obama administration with a super-majority in the Senate. Choosing a VP for electoral reasons is the conventional wisdom, to be sure, but sometimes can be a cross to bear in government.

by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 08:35:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (2.00 / 1)

Biden is VERY good on his feet.

Also, he has good creds on other issues, as the driving force behind the Violence Against Women Act.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 08:04:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Agreed Agreed. But it doesn't invalidate my argument about OH etc. And that is simply more valuable. He needs her on the domestic front because of her total mastery of the issues, her rapport with middle America, and her ability to rip the face off McCain while leaving Obama above the fray.

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 08:10:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

McCain given this week should be completely in the tank. Why isn't he?

1. The media is either not covering any of these major stumbles and practical meltdown of his campaign at all or not putting it in context.

2. He never gets any tough questions from the media at all -- for eg, why dont they force McCain to acknowledge that the war was a humongous mistake, as they are brow-beating Obama to acknowledging "the success of the surge".

3. Perceptions of inexperience -- most people have no clue that he has more legislative and elective office experience than most of the contenders.

4. Too early yet -- most people are not paying attention. When that is the case, they default to the most familiar name (evinced nicely by the defections from McCain to the third-party candidates and the early national primary polls).

5. Fear of "the other": roll racism, anti-islamic sentiments etc into this one -- there is a certain resistance even among dems on this score.

6. Lastly, people not paying attention, but hearing of the hoopla, conclude that he must be a gadfly with just charisma, due to innate phobias of cultic behavior...

Don't let the Thugs define Sen. Obama: Fight the Smears

by DraftChickenHawks on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 09:53:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (2.00 / 1)

Chuck Todd is right. It only really started to register with me on Monday and I'm watching for this stuff. I couldnt get over the monday night juxtaposition of Obama basketballing and hobnobbing while McCain was running around in a golf cart with Bush senior looking as if he was retired. It was the most compelling comparison although tonight was pretty good Obama in Israel being feted, McCain in grocery store with woman/child.

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:29:09 PM EST

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Me, too.

And what else is new is the attention McCain is getting about his misstatements about Iraq.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 08:05:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

I really hate David Gregory. The guy is the most thinly veiled McCain shill this side of Sean Hannity.

by ArkansasLib on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:29:10 PM EST

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

"Let freedom ring" is up with an absurd ad here in AZ. Obama, worse that a flip flopper!! Gasp!! (McCain's dying breath)

by dogeatdogi on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 07:48:54 PM EST

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Chuck Todd bringing a dose of reality:

It's going to take a week or two to see if he gets a bounce out of [his Middle East trip.] We're not going to see it in an instant poll.

----

Yeah, that's what I've been thinking.

Heck, most low info voters probably didn't even realize he was in the Mideast until Monday night.

by Bush Bites on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 08:16:11 PM EST

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

My feeling has been that people just don't buy McCain as president, but they're still deciding about Obama.

If this trip goes well, it will go a long way to closing the deal.

by Bush Bites on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 08:23:03 PM EST

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Nader and Barr will be lucky to get a combined 2% of the vote, in my opinion. It's strange that they both seem to be taking a cut from McCain, though.

by rfahey22 on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 08:29:29 PM EST

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

I'm amazed that both Nader and Barr are pulling from McCain. Too bad they won't be on most ballots (except for Barr perhaps).

by Homebrewer on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 08:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

It would be nice to see Barr help turn Georgia blue, probably just a dream, but miracles do happen.

by Roberta on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 08:49:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Not at all strange -- McCain's losing to Nader what he was getting from Hillary...

Don't let the Thugs define Sen. Obama: Fight the Smears

by DraftChickenHawks on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 09:44:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

Keep in mind that during this time, McCain outspent Obama on ads 3-1.

He focused on 11 states -- and made progress in ONLY ONE of them. (See charts here: http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mar k%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=2838 )

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 08:34:56 PM EST

Like Reagan in 1980 (none / 0)

The public didn't like Carter, but wasn't sold on Reagan for a long time. People worried he was a right-wing nut case (which he was) and that he was a fluffy actor and not a serious choice. Anderson was a viable alternative for a while. Polls had Carter leading Reagan as late as early October. But then in the debate Reagan looked presidential and Carter's numbers collapsed down the stretch.

Tony Blankley has compared this to 1980 as well.

This is how change elections work, folks. The public rejects the status quo but takes a long time to buy into the alternative. As in 1980, ALL the energy is on the side of the challenger. But it takes a while for it to sink in.

by elrod on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 09:16:39 PM EST

Kerry NEVER led this amount in the NBC poll (none / 0)

Note also that the NBC poll is NOT one of those pro-Dem polls that shows the candidate up 10 points or something. Kerry never got above a 4 point lead in the NBC poll in 2004.

by elrod on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 09:17:40 PM EST

Re: WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Up 6 (none / 0)

If Obama wins this election by 6 points, it will be considered a landslide.

jb4

by jbentley4 on Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 01:11:46 PM EST

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