MyDD :: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

by cardboard 1, Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:26:48 PM EST

SUSA has two state polls out today for PA and NM which show some great news. Obama has an 8 point lead in PA and is tied in NM. SUSA has stopped polling Clinton's numbers - sorry Clinton folks.

However, and perhaps more interesting, is that they have begun to poll VP picks and John Edwards helps the Obama ticket quite a bit in both states. I think this is a combination of Edwards being a known quantity, as well as his appeal to a voting base (outside of Kossacks) distinct from Obama. I wish SUSA would have included Hillary Clinton and Condi Rice in the cross-tabs...but oh well.

Here are the numbers

PA : Obama: 48 McCain: 40

Obama / Edwards
50/40 (McCain / Huckabee)
52/37 (McCain / Romney)
52/35 (McCain / Pawlenty)
50/38 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Sebelius
42/45 (McCain / Huckabee)
40/41 (McCain / Romney)
41/38 (McCain / Pawlenty)
41/42 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Rendell
40/47 (McCain / Huckabee)
48/39 (McCain / Romney)
49/37 (McCain / Pawlenty)
48/45 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Hagel
40/42 (McCain / Huckabee)
42/41 (McCain / Romney)
42/36 (McCain / Pawlenty)
40/41 (McCain / Lieberman)

---------------------------------------- --

NM : Obama: 44 McCain: 44

Obama / Edwards
47/44 (McCain / Huckabee)
48/42 (McCain / Romney)
47/38 (McCain / Pawlenty)
47/41 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Sebelius
38/48 (McCain / Huckabee)
35/47 (McCain / Romney)
36/43 (McCain / Pawlenty)
35/44 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Rendell
36/48 (McCain / Huckabee)
36/45 (McCain / Romney)
37/41 (McCain / Pawlenty)
36/42 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Hagel
33/50 (McCain / Huckabee)
36/47 (McCain / Romney)
36/42 (McCain / Pawlenty)
35/44 (McCain / Lieberman)

This shows that for a relatively unkown Obama the VP nominee will make some difference. CW often suggest that few people vote on VP picks. I'm doubtful that will hold this cycle. And, perhaps, comfort (which is what I think the Edwards offer) is more important the experience (which my personal pick Wes Clark offers). Anyway, some interesting numbers to chew on. The Edwards difference is really remarkable.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=bc4b7825-1ea9-4cf6-be2e-bbeb0f 7c2d5f

Tags: Barack Obama, John Edwards (all tags)

Permalink :: 41 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

if they matched up clinton , would have been better

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:29:54 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

So would reagan if they polled him but neither will be on the ballot this fall

by Cheebs on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:33:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

Mean. Very good. But mean.

by niksder on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:36:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

Yes, but Clinton is no less reasonable a VP pick than Hagel.

by elrod on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:45:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (2.00 / 1)

Is that because it makes too much sense to put the one person on the ticket who can assure that our two powerful forces are united?

Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.

by pollbuster on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:59:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

I don't know about that, but one thing for sure, none of the four that they polled are going to be on the ticket.

Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.

by pollbuster on Tue May 20, 2008 at 03:03:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Heh. Especially since Edwards have (2.00 / 2)

completely ruled it. He's not interested. One of lifes little ironies, I suppose.

It's an election, not an auction.

by cosbo on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Agreed. (none / 0)

It was obvious from the interview (with Lauer?) that Edwards will end up with some sort of cabinet post, but doesn't want to be VP.

Which is fair -- he'd fit well as AG or Labor obviously, plus a couple othes.

by Rorgg on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:55:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Agreed. (none / 0)

It's nice putting imaginary cabinets together, but first there is the little matter of winning the election. And to do so we need a united party, or all we will ever have is imaginary cabinets.

Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.

by pollbuster on Tue May 20, 2008 at 03:01:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Speculation is what blogs are for. (none / 0)

by dystopianfuturetoday on Tue May 20, 2008 at 05:30:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ifs are funny things (none / 0)

If Clinton had voted against Bush's war...

If she had given any sign that she'd learned something from the last eight years....

If she'd shown the same energy and determination in the Senate that she's shown in the campaign...

by BlueinColorado on Tue May 20, 2008 at 04:12:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

if they matched up clinton, clinton supporters would have been furious because she's still in the race. There's no way SurveyUSA could include her at this point.

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

by fbihop on Tue May 20, 2008 at 04:25:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

I think it is striking how poorly an Obama/Rendell ticket does in PA...

I wouldn't mind seeing polling on Obama/Casey and Obama/Strickland though.

I read the body count out of the paper; now it's written all over my face.

by JDF on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:34:30 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

Yeah that Randell is not a good choice is probably the most that can be brought from this poll. And, that the VP choice will be important for Obama.

Matthew25Network.com

by cardboard 1 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:42:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

I think that Casey is likely a non-starter because of his anti-choice stance.

The future is unwritten

by Strummerson on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:47:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

Casey will not be chosen. I voted for him happily, several times, but the idea is laughable.

by PantherDem on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:11:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

I wrote about this over at my blog on New Mexico politics.

One wonders how well Obama would do in New Mexico if Richardson were on the ticket...

and, btw, it looks like Huckabee is the best for McCain at the moment.

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

by fbihop on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:36:56 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

It is not fair to poll these things right now. Edwards is a much better known candidate than either governor or Hagel. Whoever Obama picks will become well known after she starts campaigning.

by The Distillery on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:38:11 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

I agree. But, there are some interesting numbers here, particularly the absence of any Rendell boost. I think the volatility of the numbers is instructive as well. It's just a reminder that GE polling this far out shouldn't be taken too seriously.

by DPW on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:48:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No. Hagel. For. Veep. (none / 0)

SecDef, fine.

Not Veep.

by BlueinColorado on Tue May 20, 2008 at 04:13:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Two lightweight one-term Senators (2.00 / 1)

This is a disaster idea. Edwards is a nice person with good intentions, but he ran on a platform that opposed everything he voted for when he was in the Senate. The NYT endorsement of Hillary said this so well.

Both are men who started running for president before their first term was up. That Obama people are promoting this tells me they're more clueless than we realized.

by catfish1 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:44:41 PM EST

Re: Two lightweight one-term Senators (none / 0)

So clueless that they beat the Clintons. Yeah. Real clueless.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:46:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Two lightweight one-term Senators (none / 0)

Both are men who started running for president before their first term was up

As opposed to Hillary Clinton, who started running for president by running for the Senate in a state she'd never lived in? And lost the presidential race in her second year in the Senate? On October 10, 2002, to be precise.

by BlueinColorado on Tue May 20, 2008 at 04:09:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

PS (none / 0)

You forgot to fill me in on all those important Senate votes Obama missed.

by BlueinColorado on Tue May 20, 2008 at 04:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

Why doesn't the map on mydd reflect an Obama win in PA? The past three polls have Obama leading McCain by more than 5 points in PA.

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Pres-GE-Mv O.php

by DPW on Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:59:15 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

My bad. It does show Obama winning PA.

by DPW on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:00:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

they should have him winning Michigan and Wisc.

Matthew25Network.com

by cardboard 1 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:28:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Noted your correction below... (none / 0)

but there are two big problem with the map:

1. We don't know what it includes. The way it swings, it seems to be a "most recent" thing, but which polls are included is unknown. There needs to be some transparency there.

2. A win/lose binary output 6 months out is a horrible, horrible gauge. Think about this... what's better at this point:
+1 in Iowa
-15 in Pennsylvania
-12 in Ohio

or
-4 in Iowa
-1 in Pennsylvania
-2 in Ohio

Obviously, the second scenario is where you'd prefer to be today -- the polling is within the MoE in all three, and there's a long way to go, but under the way the map works (or seems to -- see point #1) more "strength" is shown by scenario #1.

by Rorgg on Tue May 20, 2008 at 03:08:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Noted your correction below... (none / 0)

I agree that the map is unhelpful. I prefer poblano's analysis, really. And, I tend to look at all the data available at pollster/RCP to get a more informed view of GE probabilities.

One thing I like about Poblana, in particular, is his analasis of how increased voter turnout among key demographics would affect the race. One of the limitations of conventional polling is that said polls don't tend to reflect the enthusiasm gap between dems and republicans, as evinced throughout the primary season. And, with a candidate like Obama who will very likely boost turnout among the young and AAs, turnout models based on prior elections are flawed.

by DPW on Tue May 20, 2008 at 03:50:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

Edwards doesn't want to be VP. Its really that simple.

This data does suggest how careful Obama needs to be with this choice though. The numbers for Sebelius and, to a lesser extent, Rendell are really pretty unimpressive (Hagel is a non-starter). Some of that is because they don't have name recognition at this point, but I don't think it can account for it all.

John McCain: Extending SCHIP would be an "unfunded liability."

by Fuzzy Dunlop on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:00:19 PM EST

Annoying VP options (none / 0)

I'd much rather have known the numbers for an Obama/Wes Clark or an Obama/Strickland rather than the utterly implausible Obama/Hagel.

by Aris Katsaris on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:04:49 PM EST

obama-edwards (none / 0)

Now that's a dream team.

And a beautiful dream team at that.

"Beauty, more than bitterness, makes the heart break." Sara Teasdale

by april34fff on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:27:39 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

I would honestly rather have Clinton than Edwards. Edwards has not shown me anything in terms of electability during his two and one half campaigns. Plus, Cheney killed him in their debate.

by rfahey22 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:29:48 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

I guess I will now have to retire my signature for Hagel.

Seems the key thing is recognition. Edwards or HRC now for Obama V.P.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:42:26 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (2.00 / 1)

Edwards, In my opinion would not help him in his weak demographics. He polls worst with the blue collard demographic than Obama does, dont bother mentioning the other minority demographics.

Edwards is a nice guy, but wont seal any cracks.

"Rankles and Rush Limbaugh, ruining the chaos brand since 2008."

by alyssa chaos on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:50:01 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

Edwards did mediocre in 2 Presidential campaigns, and he lost as a Vice Presidential candidate, adding nothing to the ticket. He was unable to avoid a blowout in his own state, and was trounced in the VP debate with Cheney. So I guess it figures that there are a lot of democrats who want to see him on the ticket.

Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.

by pollbuster on Tue May 20, 2008 at 02:57:18 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

How does this 'point' to an Obama-Edwards ticket? This is all pointless guessing right now. I'm curious why they don't poll Obama/Clinton, as that's the pairing that seems to be getting the most airtime right now. Edwards will not be VP, sorry.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Tue May 20, 2008 at 03:22:20 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

Edwards is not a good campaigner, he never catches on. His voting record and personal history rightly bring up charges of hypocrisy. You lose all the doctors

by rocky on Tue May 20, 2008 at 03:55:23 PM EST

Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket (none / 0)

Well,

IMHO what this polls really says is the other potential candidates as VP are hurting the ticket but not Edwards. Why would that be and why does BO numbers go down when not matched with Edwards. Because there are HRC supporters who could live with Edwards as VP but not the others and this is telling us how willing Hillary democrats are to vote for McCain if they dont feel like their views are addressed.

Just one man's opinion.

by giusd on Tue May 20, 2008 at 04:15:22 PM EST

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