What's up tonight?

Lots of new national polls today, suffice to say that you can find them all on RCP or Pollster.  RCP has Obama up by 1.2% and Pollster has Obama up by 1.6% today in their poll of polls average, so about 45 to 43.5 is where we are at right now.

Now we get to the next phase, with VP announcements and conventions all jam-packed into the next 15 days. I am not counting on seeing a large bounce from the current margin by either candidate. But, if either candidate gets a bounce above 4% from their going-in margin, that would be significant. 4% being the average bounce in the past three elections for both sides. So, Obama's average going above 49% or McCain above 47.5% and we have a candidate breaking out of the current range.

Gallup looks at all the bounces for recent conventions:

A fairly predictable range for the Republicans, but one all over the map for Democrats.

H/t to HellOfaSandwich in Breaking Blue for the news that a new Insider Advantage poll has Road To 60 Democratic challenger Kay Hagan now tied with do-nothing incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) at just under 40% each. The fact that Other and Undecideds add up to a full 20% speaks volumes about North Carolinians' discontent with Dole as their senator. An incumbent who can't even get 40% is a huge problem.

I do wonder whether the poll may have oversampled Democrats though, since the poll lists an equal number of respondents who identify as Democrats as identify as Republicans but this is a great boost to Hagan who'd seen Dole retake a fairly solid lead in some polls (Pollster's trend estimate has Dole up by 8%.) While we'll look for subsequent polls to confirm whether this new tightening is real, it does look like the new air offensive by the DSCC, MoveOn and Hagan herself may be paying some dividends.

More on the poll from Swing State Project:

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-43 in North Carolina. Hagan currently outperforms Obama among white voters (who break 54-33 for McCain, and 46-34 for Dole), but lags Obama's performance among African-Americans (who favor Obama by 75-17, but Hagan only by 61-24). If Hagan can cut down on cross-over voting among black voters and make a steady gain among whites, she could be in a good position for an upset by election day.

You can help Kay Hagan out over at our Road To 60 ActBlue page.

Sad.

Tubbs Jones, 58, died at 6:12 p.m. after suffering a brain hemorrhage caused by an aneurysm that burst and left her with limited brain function, spokeswoman Eileen Sheil said

"Throughout the course of the day and into this evening, Congresswoman Tubbs Jones' medical condition declined," Sheil said in a statement from the clinic and Tubbs Jones' family.

The liberal Democrat, first elected in 1998, suffered the hemorrhage while driving her car in Cleveland Heights Tuesday night, said Dr. Gus Kious, president of Huron Hospital in East Cleveland.

The Obama campaign today held a conference call going after McCain for being "reckless." Greg Sargent has it over at TPM:

In an apparent effort to regain the offensive, the Obama campaign launched a broad attack on McCain today, portraying him as reckless on foreign policy, a hot-head who's too willing to use force and not willing enough to apprise himself of facts on the ground before urging military action.

On a conference call with reporters just now, senior Obama foreign policy adviser Susan Rice argued that there is "a pattern here of recklessness" when it comes to McCain's approach to various national security issues. She pointed out that McCain reacted too quickly with "aggressive and bellicose" rhetoric on the Russia-Georgia crisis, and contrasted that with Obama's measured response to the dust-up.

"There's something to be said for letting facts drive judgment," Rice said, also referring to McCain's desire to target Iraq right after 9/11.

Also on the call, Richard Clarke apparently joined the chorus calling him "reckless," "trigger-happy" and "discredited."

TPM's David Kurtz wonders whether this meme will be effective "in a nation where we like our action heroes to shoot first and ask questions later." Fair question but what Kurtz doesn't take into account is the message below the message: McCain's age.

As McCain's fellow POW, Phillip Butler, wrote in an editorial:

I can verify that John has an infamous reputation for being a hot head. He has a quick and explosive temper that many have experienced first hand. Folks, quite honestly that is not the finger I want next to that red button.

That's what this is about. As I wrote early in July, McCain's age should be on the table. Chris Bowers agrees:

Attack McCain's age. This might seem more dangerous, and I have cautioned against it before. However, it would seem foolish to avoid it at this point, because all of the clever attacks are being directed at Obama. We need to turn the tables, and this would help out quite a bit. For starters, voters want "change" in this election, and old age is an antithesis of change. Second, there is already a well-established national narrative about McCain's age, so it would reinforce existing anti-McCain narratives. Third, if the attack was done correctly, there would still be deniability that McCain's age was even being attacked. It could turn McCain into an angry, whiny, too sensitive candidate, which in turn makes him look old and weak. The narrative can thus reinforce itself even if McCain fights back.

Seems to me that's what we're looking at with this "reckless" meme.

Update [2008-8-20 19:57:4 by Todd Beeton]:GWU Battleground 2008 poll finds that 27% of respondents are "not at all comfortable" with electing a 72 year old president; only 4% said the same thing about electing an African-American.

Wow, Clinton sure does have a packed schedule in Florida on Thursday (see it in the extended entry) on behalf of Obama. Makes Maureen Dowd look stupid.

There was a big Bayh boon earlier today that got shot down.

Biden took a successful dump.

Dana Goldstein revels with anticipation in watching the furitive reactions to a Sebelius nod. How unity of Dana.

Late last night, did I really predict that Daschle would be the VP?

Obama is in VA today stumping with Warner, and tomorrow, he's doing a town hall event with Kaine, with reports that Obama is spending the night in Richmond.

The good thing is that its now less than 48 hours till you will know.

Update [2008-8-20 19:1:36 by Jerome Armstrong]: I was looking at the map yesterday, thinking the same tour thing as what Nate blogged, but I recall reading somewhere about Obama being in WI and E. IA after IL as well...

Democratic Ohio Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones remains in critical condition after suffering a brain aneurysm last night. Here's the WaPo's updated report:

Tubbs Jones' office has released a statement saying that she suffered an aneurysm while driving last night. "At the present time Rep. Tubbs Jones condition has stabilized and she is receiving the best care available," the statement says. Local news reports say she remains unconscious.

Tubbs Jones, 58, is the first black woman to represent Ohio in Congress. She was a strong supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) during the Democratic presidential primary but later switched to back Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). Like her fellow Democratic members of Congress, she is scheduled to be a superdelegate at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

Our thoughts are with her and her family. We'll update as more information becomes available.

No shock here, but it looks like it's official as The AP is reporting that Joe Lieberman will speak at the Republican convention.

A Republican official tells The Associated Press that Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman will be speaking at the Republican National Convention.

The GOP official said Wednesday that Lieberman would deliver a speech as Republicans gathered in St. Paul to nominate John McCain for president. The official requested anonymity because he wasn't authorized to make an announcement.

The timing of the revelation is interesting as it coincides with Andrea Mitchell's reporting that Lieberman is being seriously considered as a VP choice by John McCain, so much so that the campaign is asking states whether it would be a problem to put someone who is not a Republican on the GOP presidential ticket. Chuck Todd broke down McCain's thinking last night on Countdown:

If he believes it's 3rd and 4 and all he needs is 4 yards to get that touchdown and win this election, he's going to pick Tim Pawlenty out of Minnesota. If he thinks it's 3rd and 11 and he needs to throw the long ball a little bit, and he's gotta take a risk, he's gonna do Joe Lieberman...Lieberman's the riskiest choice but there may be part of McCain who believes this is the only way I can get over 50. It's not about keeping it close it's about winning.

As the election stands right now, McCain certainly seems to be more in Pawlenty territory than in Lieberman territory, but whether or not he's on the ticket, Lieberman's mere presence at the convention should serve as the last straw for senate Democrats on the question of whether he should be removed from the caucus and hence from his committee chairmanship. Something tells me though that the only thing that will remove Lieberman from that chairmanship will be his resignation from the senate to take a cabinet position in a McCain administration, which would mean that -- and correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is that since CT has a Republican governor, Lieberman would be replaced by a Republican senator. Which means Lieberman would get the last laugh.