You said 8-11% So on the low end, which is what it would be, that is a 92-8 vs. 94-6...I mean really, you are going to argue with your own math?
Excuse me, 94 to 1 is a 93 point spread. Usually it would be 90 to 10 which is a 10 point spread. I'm NOT arguing with my own math.
than 94% of a small pie.
You are all overlooking the importance of black turnout. It's likely to be disproportionately large in the general election. So it's nice that the black percentage is just a little higher (nearly unanimous), but don't forget that a big turnout means 94% of a much bigger pie.
I didn't say anything about turnout, I'm talking %'s.
it may still be 90-10.
First of all, this is a more Democratic year, so you have more people across the board voting Democratic. More white men, more women, more evangelicals even. My uncle, for example, has voted Republican since Reagan and was voting Democratic whether it was Obama or Clinton (he's black). So that may explain a 2% shift, or more, to 92-8, where it still might be.
94-1 means 5% are still undecided. With the MOE that number can be anywhere from 90-10 to 98-2.
